I will now convince myself of an Auburn victory on Saturday
A couple of thoughts on the GT game, since it's believed to be the only real game that we've played this year. Auburn outgained GT 392-313 in total yards. The lost can be attributed to several factors:
- Brandon Cox was starting his first game, against a talented an experienced defense. Which would have been fine, had we not asked him to throw the ball 44 times. As a result he passed for 342 yards but also threw 4 interceptions. I'm not sure that Borges really knew Brandon's limits yet, and put a little too much pressure on him to win the game single handedly.
- Because of GT's blitzing defense, the coaches incorrectly chose to go with experience over talent at tailback. Because Tre Smith and Carl Stewart had more experience with pass protection, they received a majority of the playing time. Kenny Irons who gained 182 yards against Arkansas last week only had 1 carry in the GT game. So I feel confident in stating that our running game is much better.
- Defensive coordinator David Gibbs was coaching his first game at Auburn. According to the team their was some confusion getting the plays called in the first half of the game. As a result, Auburn gave up 17 first half points and 268 yards (129 on the first two drives). In the 2nd half Auburn got it's psynch and managed to only surrender 6 points and 114 yards despite Auburn's offense giving up 5 turnovers.
- That being said, GT played better than Auburn. Their players stepped up, their coaches called better plays and made better personnel positions, and they did all of this on the road. But Auburn is a different team now. The defense has worked out their kinks thanks to a soft schedule, Cox now has experience at home and on the road, and our running game is beginning to take shape.
It's tought to figure out what to make of LSU this year. I have trouble saying that Hurricane Katrina hasn't affected them greatly. Instead of getting a warmup game and then playing ASU at home, they have to forfeit a ton of practice time and open on the road against a talented team. They grit it out, make some specail plays, and come away with a win. The UT game was sloppy and showed that Jamarcus Russell is still a young quarterback. It also showed that LSU is capable of losing a night game at home again. Not much to take away from the next couple of games except that LSU is still talented but sloppy team. LSU is tied for the league lead in turnovers and is the second most penalized team. Last week they let a medicore Florida team stick around because they just aren't consistant enough to put a team away right now. I think bad coaching and a lack of quality practice time is really hurting LSU right now.
So, I believe Auburn can win. If you've been following my betting trends this year, all of my rules lead to picking LSU. They are a home favorite and are the only team in the matchup that could possibly win in blowout fashion. If this matchup was the exact same and involved any two teams outside of the SEC, I would take the LSU team every time.
But I feel good about this. LSU corners have been anything but impressive this year. Which means that Auburn's talented WR corps should be able to gain some valuable yardage. Auburn also showed a willingness to attack a blitz with effective running last week for the first time that I can remember in awhile. If LSU starts getting burned on the blitz and has to retreat to a more conservative approach, Al Borges will have a field day with his playcalling.
But still the one flaw with Auburn's offense the past two seasons, is the ability to perform well against a blitzing defense. LSU and VT were able to hold us in check last year and GT did the same to some extent this year. And considering that Cox has 6 interceptions in his two hardest matchups is a bit worrisome. The saving grace is that there is no reason to believe that we will lose the turnover margin against an undisciplined LSU.
If Auburn can manage to not lose the game in the first ten minutes, it will stay a close game and come down to coaching. I'm giving Borges and Gibbs the nod over Fisher and Pellini. If I had been able to make the trip like I did in 1999, I'd smoke a victory cigar on the field after the game like I did then. Auburn 24 LSU 17
WAR DAMN EAGLE!
LSU BLEAUXS!
Sidenote: For all of you DJ Shockley haters, take a gander at the SEC Team stats and see who's
leading the sec in passing offense. I'll also point out that Auburn (thanks schedule makers) is currently leading the SEC in scoring offense and defense.