I'm tired as hell. That was a fun, weird, and ultimately sucessful game last night. As I've stated before, Auburn always has trouble against running qbs. Our speed tends to work against us. And I still hate Thursdays games. So here are my bare bones picks and then I"m going to take another nap.
Last Week: 2-4
Season: 12-9
Wisconsin -11 INDIANA
SYRACUSE -5 Wyoming
KENTUCKY -8 Central Michigan
Georgia Tech +10 VIRGINIA TECH
Tennessee -13 MEMPHIS
-awful week for my picks. 2-5 just ain't what I was looking for. I was able to go 3-1 on NFL picks on Sunday to regain some precious cash, but just not a good showing.
- Well at the last minute I came to my senses about 3.5 hours before kickoff of the auburn game. Luckilly it takes less that two hours to get there from Atlanta. Auburn looked mediocre at best. The starters played way too long with a Sunday game coming up. I didn't think Auburn would cover but that was because I saw the 2nd or 3rd string defense giving up some points late in the game. Well that wasn't the problem. Following the LSU game and looking ahead to the USC game the team came out flat. Which I expected to some extent and understand. But never the less Auburn has a few problems that have become crystal clear after 4 games. Brandon Cox by no means has a rocket for an arm. We will always struggle to have a consistant vertical passing game. Compounding that problem is that Courtney Taylor is currently the only receiver worth a damn. Everyone else has trouble getting separation and/or blocking compared to last year's group. As has been the case for at least 5 years, Tuberville's undersized but quick defense constantly over runs plays and is vulnerable against the option, counter plays, and reverses. On the bright side Auburn might have the best pass defense in the conference coupled with the best punter and best kickoff return team. Also, whether he's given holes or not Kenny Irons runs as hard as any tailback I've ever witnessed. Plus Brad Lester is a hell of a changeup back that is lightning quick and a touchdown machine.
- UGA was exposed. The UT, UF, Auburn, and Tech games will all be a struggle for them. That's about all they have on the schedule and they stand a good chance of pulling out 2 of those games. However the line, WR's and QB's are below recent UGA standards. Though with Milner's catch on Saturday he looks ready to step up and play the role of massive UGA TE that makes at least one important play a game. I'm also not sold on Willie Martinez yet. He's done a hell of a job against lesser teams, but those Auburn and West Virginia peformances are still fresh on my mind. I could see Florida, TN, and Auburn all putting up over 20 points on the Dawg D this year. Don't get me wrong Georgia is still a quality program, I just don't think they are a threat to win the SEC this year.
- I've actually been impressed with Kentucky this year. At this moment I'm ranking the SEC Auburn, LSU, Florida, UGA, UT, Arkansas, bama, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vandy, Ole Miss, Miss State. All subject to change at any moment. Though I think I may have inflated view of LSU. They can't run at all, which will work against less talented defenses.
- The Falcons game last night was a debacle on every level. I can't think of one facet of the game where Atlanta looked good. Maybe kickoff returns? Although I'm not sure anything that I saw was reason for long term concern. Other than the fact that Greg Knapp is a below average play caller that should be fired on the spot. Here's a tip. If you on the road in a hostile environment, the last thing you should do is throw a ton and put Vick in situations where he can be sacked. That opens the door for three and outs and the crowd erupting. Traditional runs. After the Saints have been working on the shotgun option play all week, it's awful idea to run it on the first possesion. Just make them think it's coming.
- The Braves season ends on Sunday. I was offered "pimp seats" for the Tuesday, Friday and Sunday games and turned down the offer for all three. I'll be fired up and ready to go again next spring but the 2nd half of the season really took it's toll on me as a fan.
- Going to the Auburn game in Columbia on Thursday night. If anybody has any Williams Bryce tailgating tips or knows any good restaurants in the area let me know in the comments.
Apparently Atlanta's ABC affiliate, Channel 2, has opted not to show the season premier of Lost on Wednesday night 9pm. Instead they are showing a 30 minute interview special by local anchorwoman Monica Kauffman. Lost will be aired at 2:05 that night. Brilliant. If you are pissed off like me you can email the station at talk2us@wsbtv.com .
EDIT: I"M A HUGE IDIOT AND THE SEASON PREMIERE IS NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT IS JUST A CLIP SHOW
Not exactly the murderous row of matchups that last week brought us. The Big 10 has a little something to offer and I'll be watching the Arkansas/Alabama game intently to see who is worser of the two. But most importantly, I'm a little disappointed in myself. Earlier in the week I contemplated an exciting agenda. Find cheap tickets to the GT/UVA game on Thursday night, hit the Auburn/Buffalo game up on Saturday, and then make the trek to Columbia for the Auburn/USC showdown next Thursday. 3 College games in 8 days. Well I missed out on the first leg yesterday. Rain, limited snaps for starters because of the short week, lack of traveling companions, and the CSS replay have me pretty sure I'm not heading to the Plains tomorrow. So I'm pulling a Chipper Jones and hitting .300 without any flair. I'm picking 6 games this week becuase it felt right. By the way, that's Kevin Sorbo in the picture on the top right.
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 10-5
CLEMSON -16.5 North Carolina:
UNC to my casual observation appears to be worse than they have in the past few seasons, which isn't a good sign. Clemson started of with a big win over a lesser opponent, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against BC on the road, and then headed down to Tallahassee and put up some points on what some consider to be a stellar defense. Sadly, UNC should be exhausted after going to the wire against Furman. Wow that's pathetic. I expect the Tigers to put up around 35 while only yielding 10.
Iowa -20.5 ILLINOIS:
What do I know about these two teams? Not much. But if Illinois has proved anything this year it's that they suck. The line is below 20 as result of the Hawkeye's offense being a little sluggish and the possibility that Iowa could look ahead to their game with Ohio St. I'm not buying it. Rutgers beat the Illini 33-0, I'm assuming Iowa is capable of something similar.
Washington State -10 STANFORD:
You shouldn't find it surprising that I like to bet against 0-3 teams. It's not like the NFL where some teams just caught some bad breaks, some college teams really are the epitomy of awful. WSU has struggled against two rugged defenses from the South, but they can definitely air it out and run when they have at least an equal sized line. The Cougars are definitely having their injury issues, but at least they haven't forfeited their pride like the Cardinal.
Boston College -6.5 @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE:
If for some reason you haven't checked out the most recent Chuck Amato cartoon you better catch it quick before he gets fired. NCSU like the above mentioned teams is plain old dreadful. They are as bad of a college football team as Cabin Fever was a movie. Boston College is unimpressive but they just keep chalking up victories. When this line dropped below 7 it made it impossible not to pick the Eagles.
OLE MISS -2 Wake Forest:
Wake supposedly had a chance to be good this year. Then their QB Mauk got injured and since then they've been relying on luck to get by the likes of Duke. Ole Miss has been obliterated the last two weeks on the road at Mizzou and Kentucky. Their pass defense has just been torched. But their line and linebackers are still plenty stout. The Rebels are back in Oxford and they'll figure out a way to protect the ball and pull out a win.
Southern California -22 ARIZONA
I can't be bothered with looking at specific unit matchups in a PAC 10 game. So this pick is based on past performances. USC gave Arkansas a whooping on the road and soundly be the Cornhuskers at home. As for the Wildcats, LSU threw on them like it was Playstation. The Trojans may give up some late points but I expect Booty and company to put up at least 40 in the desert.
So I finally just got around to seeing Bill Simmons bomb on the Colbert Report. In his defense, it was idiotic to have him on in the first place. What the hell were they going to talk about?
But now to the good stuff. A look back at Steve Colbert and Steve Carrell's Even Steven debates
The Yellow Jackets may be in the best position they've found themselves in for quite some time. There are some tough games left on the schedule, but all appear to be winnable in the pathetic ACC. Currently sitting at 2-1 after the out of conference slate of Notre Dame, Samford, and Troy State, the Wramblin Wreck is geared up for the conference schedule.
Starting this Thursday night GT should be favored over Virginia at home. Next comes a trip to Blacksburg against the stingy Hokies. Advantages for GT in that game will be friendly 3:30 start, Virginia Tech's absolute non-existant offense, and nine days to prepare. I'm by no means predicting a Yellow Jacket victory, but it's within the realm of possibility. Then they face off against the sluggish Maryland Terps at home before having another showdown game at Clemson. Clemson is a good but not outstanding team. If Georgia somehow manages to beat VT they could head into this game with some swagger. More than likely though, they'll need to get this win to prove their legitimacy. They have the defense, but by this point in the season will they have figured out some way to score points? They return home to play suddenly beatable Miami who may have pulled at Tennessee 2005 by now and blown up. Follow that up with an easy 3 game set of @ NC State, @ UNC, and Duke. Then the season ending battle in Athens with UGA. The Bulldawgs will be favored as usual in the game, but I think John Tenuta has proved by now that he can rattle even Heisman candidate quarterbacks. Though Tech might get shutout in the game.
So let's assume this Tech team is different than past teams and beats everyone they should beat. That's wins against Virginia, Maryland, NC State, UNC and Duke. Which would be Gailey's normal 7 win season. But out of the VT, Clemson, Miami, and UGA I think they will win at least one and possibly two. 8-4 would be sweet, 9-3 would be better. Tech has already put together a pretty good recruiting class and a 9-3 season would help close the deal on some other blue chippers and start to set up next year's class. Make or break year for Gailey and Tech if you ask me. If they don't get it done now, they might not have another chance for 10 years.
- Thanks to Joe Cribbs Car Wash for linking to us. Their mini-wrap up of the Auburn/LSU game was solid. Love the name of the site.
- To be honest with you, the reason I don't talk about Auburn more on the site is that a) none of my friends would care and b) everything would just be regurgitation of what I read at Inside the Auburn Tigers. So you're better off just getting a membership over there. The premium message board is where all Auburn info comes from. I've never been a paying member of the Rivals.com AU site but just from cruising it, I don't like it as much.
- Ivan Maisel had a fantasic article about the Auburn/LSU game. All you really need to know is the opening paragraph though:
"AUBURN, Ala. -- No. 3 Auburn beat No. 6 LSU, 7-3, in a game that set football back 40 years, and that is typed with a song in my heart.
If you love physical football, this game was for you. If you love a game between the tackles; if you think passes are for sissies; if you think the spread offense is an Al Qaeda plot, you should have been one of the 87,451 screamers Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium."
That's good stuff right there. And as I stated in the comments earlier, it's almost a crime that people would debate whether or not a ticky tack pass interference call that didn't affect the WR's ability to catch the ball, somehow changed the result of the most physical football game I've seen since pre-Spurrier SEC football.
I don't even claim to understand how this guy can play slide guitar by holding a teaspoon with his mouth and laying it on the strings. But he does it, so props to him. We've actually put up some more conventional slide guitar lessons over on freeguitarvideos.com. But to each is own. If you can learn how to play with a spoon in your mouth, you're probably more likely to attract fans.
In addition to going 3-2 on my college picks (plus making a successful last second wager on the over in the WVU/Maryland game) and deciding to roll the dice and going 4-1 on NFL picks) I got even a little more credit/satisfaction this weekend. After reading Bruce Feldman's ESPN Insider College Football blog last week I sent him an email. In his picks column he went with FSU over Clemson based on the strength of the Seminole running backs. Apparently he read and responded on his Friday morning post:
From Jeremy in Atlanta: "Thing that has me sold: FSU's enigmatic RBs are due." Let me get this straight. You think the performance of the rushing attack that is ranked last in the nation in yards per carry will be what carries FSU on to victory? Don't overthink your picks.
Feldman: Yes, I'm playing a hunch here. If I'm wrong, I won't ever tout the Noles backs again this season.
So what happened? The FSU backs ran for a combined 106 yards on 28 carries in a losing effort Box Score.
Although it's easy to be great when you apparently have defenders dropping from the sky
So I bet over 49.5 in the West Virginia/Maryland game last night. The over is my favorite bet. You sit down, watch the game, and cheer for scoring. Fumbled kickoff return? Great! That means a team is about to score. Pick for six? Great! And the best part is that it's the only bet you can win before the game is over. Once the game went over 5 minutes into the 2nd half, I switched the TV to catch the end of The Office in HD, then headed to the bar. Good times indeed.
Without checking, I think my SEC picks in June have been exactly perfect through two weeks. Though there wasn't much room for failure outside of the Cal/UT game and Ole Miss/Mizzou. I'd expect things to change this week. That's why everybody's calling it Shakedown Saturday.
On an unrelated note, the 2nd Monday Night game featured Dick Vermeil doing color commentary. He might be the best football anouncer I've heard in some time. He breaks down the game for you like Hubie Brown does in basketball coverage. Discussing the reasoning behind certain play calls and why the safety cheated up on a certain play. This is the stuff real fans want to hear. And for the record. I hate Mike Tirico. There I said it.
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 7-3
VIRGINIA TECH -35 Duke
I had the pleasure/misfortune of watching the Duke/Wake game on the third TV last week. It wasn't until halftime that I realized I wasn't watching a high school game on ESPNU. What a crappy collection of football players. Virignia Tech hasn't exploded yet, and that might be worrisome, but they won't be looking ahead to Cincy next week either. One blocked kick, 2 pick/fumble recoveries for a touchdown and you well on your way to covering. Though the Hokie offense looked awful last week and they should by no means be a contender for a conference championship. Luckily for them they're in the ACC. How does a conference fall so far so fast?
Ole Miss +4 KENTUCKY
I actually thought UK looked better than expected against Louisville. But my expectations for the Wildcats were pretty low. At the very least the Rebels can stop a mediocre offense, and Schaeffer and company should be progressing each week. I just don't think Kentucky is good enough to be giving 4 points up to anyone.
Arkansas -5.5 VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt stadium is less intimidating than the dentist's office and almost the same size. The Razorbacks have a lot of questions on offense with new started Mitch Mustain taking control of the team. And Vandy stuck close with Michigan before botching a nail biter against Alabama. Actually, I'm not exactly sure why I'm picking this. Oh well. Luck is always good to have. Actually, Vandy is due for a let down and the Razorback actually have the best offensive line the Dores have seen. Ball control will win the game for Arkansas.
Texas -33 RICE
Mack Brown loves these games. 35 point win is almost certain.
CLEMSON +5 Florida State
Clemson should have a hell of a time moving the ball against a stout Seminole defense. No such worries stopping the FSU rushing attack. Talent gap has leveled, coaching is in the Tiger's favor, and that old home field advantage thing.
Enjoy it bitches! I'm going to miss just about every game on TV this weekend, but I get to see the biggest matchup in the nation live and in person from the South End Zone. War Damn Eagle!
Not the actual ESPN Gameday crew though. They are headed to Los Angeles for possibly the 5th best college showdown this weekend. But the actual college football intellegencia is staying focused on Jordan Hare Stadium where #6 LSU comes to town to face #3 Auburn. This game will almost certainly decide the SEC West Champion and possibly the SEC or National Champion. For some general Auburn info hit up the profile SI on Campus has up this week. For game specific ramblings check out Chaste Chad's Meditation XXVIII.
After a few years of trading decided victories, the last two meeting between the two have come down to kicking. I wouldn't expect this year's matchup to be much more lopsided. I think Auburn has a slight edge in the running game, LSU in the passing game. On defense I'm taking Auburn's defensive line, LSU's linebackers, and calling the secondaries a wash.
So where do I see the deciding Auburn advantages? Coaching and home field advantage. I've never been a huge fan of LSU OC Jimbo Fisher. The four and five wide formations look pretty, but they are pretty ineffective in the redzone. There's obvious discussion about the fact the Fisher and Muschamp were the respective coordinators under Saban and how well they know each other's systems. I don't really think that's a factor. The issue is JaMarcus Russell being able to handle all the heat that Muschamp will throw at him. Auburn's defense may lack size but they have plenty of speed to burn. Auburn played mostly out of the nickel and dime against WSU in the opener and a base 4-3 against MSU. Against LSU this week we should see a plethora of new blitz packages as well as Auburn lining up in the 3-4 with different personnel blitzing and quick defensive ends dropping into coverage.
Bo Pelini seems like more a name than a list of accomplishments to me. Though you could say the same thing about Muschamp. So I going to go with Al Borges' brilliance over the last two years. I expect the TE's to flourish tomorrow after being kept under wraps the first couple of games. Although I'm still not sold on Auburn's WR's other than Courtney Taylor.
Either way, I'm predictably predicting an Auburn victory. If it was in Baton Rouge I wouldn't be as confident.
J3R3MY C453Y pwns u n00bz
Educate yourselves or else you won't be able to understand what your 17 year old girlfriend is texting you. I'm looking at you Railbird.
Seriously, this is how the kids speak these days while they listen to the rap music on their walkmans.
Because of some problems with my DVR and various other reasons, I just got around to watching When the Levees Broke. The HBO Documentary by Spike Lee about Hurrican Katrina and the aftermath. It's 4 hours and fifteen minute gruelling recap of every aspect of the disaster. And to be honest, everyone in America should be required to see it. I feel completely drained. I don't really even know what I want to say about it.
I thought it at the time, and I still believe that it was much greater tragedy than 9/11. Yet somehow, it never received the same response from the goverment, media, or American people. I don't know if it's because there wasn't a shocking visual like the WTC towers crashing down, or if it was because it was a natural disaster and not an attack, or people just can't relate with the Gulf Coast like they can with NYC because they've never visited. Whatever the reason, I think people constantly failed to realize the impact this disaster had.
I'm not trying to force my opinions on you, and I don't agree with everything discussed in the film, but at the very least I think you should make an effort to watch it.
As for New Orleans, I visited about 5-6 times before Katrina, and haven't been back since. And when I go back I'm sure that the city and my approach to it will be completely different. It was a unique city and wonderful in many ways. The cities gifts and troubles always seemed very apparent to me but Katrina brought the problem to the nation's conscience. I think the way the city develops over the next five to ten years will be an interesting indicator of where we stand as a society. We've admitted faults. What are we going to do about it?
I know this isn't the type of thing I normally write about, but I wanted to get it written down so I can look back on it some time in the future.
Week one is easy. You just pick a bunch of good programs to win big at home. Week 2 gets trickier because you quit relying on what've you thought for the past four months and instead use one game of evidence to form an opinion. Looking at the list this week, I'm surprisingly drawn to a mess of road teams. Not exactly the best bet in college football. But you take what you can get. I'm not going to pick it this week, but for the record, I"m leaning towards Ohio State on Saturday. I think last years game proved the importance of having a defined and experienced quarterback. As for me, I decided not to hit the road this week and cruise on down to Starkvegas for the Auburn game. It was extremely tempting to make the trek to Scott Field, which along with Bryant Denny are the only stadiums in the SEC I haven't been to. However, like Fido in the picture, I'll be plopping down in my recliner for Gameday at 10am and most likely not leaving my apartment until the end of the UT/OSU game. Here is the TV schedule for tomorrow's games. I'll have the 42 inch HD raring, probably bring the 31" TV from the bedroom into the living room, and also have the 21" set up. The big question is what game gets top billing on Saturday night. Ohio State and Texas seems like the obvious choice, but I'm going to have a hard time not listening and watching the UGA/South Carolina game. I know which one is more important on the national level, but to me it's a toss up. Not to mention that I need to check out the 3rd TV for LSU/Arizona to get my mind properly prepared for what's going to go down in Jordan Hare next week. Should be an exciting day of gambling, drinking, and fun.
Last Week 4-1
Season 4-1
Home Team in CAPS
Viriginia Tech -13 NORTH CAROLINA:
I liked this game a lot better at the 12.5 I got it for earlier in the week, but it's still a good play at 13. This seems like the inexplicable line of the week. And it's beyond me why it hasn't moved more. UNC lost at home to Rutgers last week. I've heard excuses that UNC only lost because their new QB threw 2 INTS. How is that positive? You don't think that the Hokies' defense is a step up from Rutgers. He may throw 4 picks this week. Beamer Ball is back and they will run and special teams you to death.
Clemson -2.5 BOSTON COLLEGE:
Considering how wrong I was on ACC picks last week, two picks this week seems suicidal. Clemson came out and layed the hammer down on a week team like they were expected to. Uber recruit CJ Spiller didn't have quite the performance I expected following the hype he's gotten from the last week of practice but they look good. I loved the Rob Spence OC hire last year as that was the guy I had wanted Auburn to hire in 2004. Turns out we did all right with that Al Borges guy. Boston College came out a little flat on the road at Central Michigan, but they by no means looked horrible. This seems like a close game with both defenses being about equal. The difference will be Clemson's playmakers as they go ahead by a TD in the 4th quarter. Hell even if they win by a field goal this is a great line.
Georgia vs SOUTH CAROLINA Under 39 points:
South Carolina's offensive line looked dreadful against Mississippi State last week. Supposedly MSU has a good line this year, but let's be serious, they're not in the same league as UGA. Rodney Garner has been recruiting and reloading his d-line with stars for years now. Moses and Johnson will be flying at Blake Mitchell all day. I liked the effort that Boyd and Davis showed last week running the ball for the Gamecocks, but they don't have a lot of holes to work with. South Carolina's defense got a pass last week by playing the most inept offense in the SEC. And that was before the starting qb got hurt. Joe T III isn't the savior at UGA (and Matt Stafford isn't either...this year) at Mark Richt knows that. Look for a bland offense out of the dawgs who will be hoping to get 17 points and know that'll be enough. 17-13/14 sounds about right and well under the spread. The only thing I worry about is 2-3 special teams or defensive touchdowns.
Texas Tech -7 TEXAS EL-PASO:
I love Mike Leach ever since an article profiling his eccentric nature last year. Well he's off the pirate kick and moved on to Vikings this year. Anyway, UTEP's recent success has been a mixed result of slight and improvement and good scheduling. They chose not to be the whipping boy of any major programs last year. This year they convinced the Red Raiders to come to town. This offensively loaded game should end up with Texas Tech pulling away by 21 in the 4th quarter. Mike Price will wash his misery away at some skanky strip club. Unfortunately he doesn't get to used the athletic department's credit card like he did back at bama.
Auburn -20.5 vs MISSISSIPPI STATE:
Last years game fell 28-0 in Auburn's favor as a result of an especially bland offense trying to establish the run after a poor showing against Georgia Tech. In the three years before that Auburn won 43-14, 45-13, 42-14. Let's say that bulldogs defense has improved and the offense may be as good as a Div-11 team. 35-10 seems about right. I usually worry about a backdoor cover at the end of the game, but it's definitely less likey on the road. This is definitely a tune up game for LSU and the idea will be to get crisper in every aspect of the game.
Some Longhorn fan took a good bit of time breaking down this weekend's Ohio State vs. Texas game. It has breakdowns of rosters, formations, etc with charts, pictures, and video. One day I hope to quit my job and start doing stuff like this.
and I got to ask this question once again, why is no one in the mainstream media doing this type of stuff? Jaworski does it for NFL games, why don't they do it for the most hyped college game each week?
Woah Woah Woah. Everybody needs to hold their horses on this Tennessee bandwagon. Now I might not be the best person to say this, since I predicted them to win the SEC East, but who else is going to? They've played one game, at home, against a craptacular defense. 3 of the Vols TD's were on broken plays of 40 yards or more, two of those were 7 yard curls where a freshman cornerback missed a tackle.
Think about that UT team from Saturday night, and fill in LSU instead of Cal. Those three missed tackles for touchdowns don't happen. LSU moves the ball by using a power running game and having a more than competent QB tossing it around to uber athletes. I'm not saying Tennessee definitely loses that game, but it's a nail biter. I think they'll end the season around #10-12 in the polls.
As for other games:
Auburn: only three teams pose a serious threat this year. LSU, Arkansas, and bama. Auburn's only weakness may be stopping the run. And those are the only three teams on the schedule that can really take advantage of that.
USC: damn man. I know I called it, but those cats are good. We'll have to wait a few weeks to see how their defense is though.
Tech: same old same old
ACC: ugh. What a horrible horrible performance conference wide. Clemson was the only team with an impressive win despite the conference playing 4 Division 2 teams. You can go ahead and end the ACC vs SEC arguments.
