Week 1 Picks: Where'd the Cupcakes Go?

There is a surprising lack of cupcake games going down on Saturday. At least of the traditional variety. Florida are favored by 34.5 against Hawai'i, but technically the Rainbow Warriors played in a better bowl game last year. The only other number over 30 I see is Kansas -36 over FIU. So theoretically we have some more compelling games than in previous openers though there are few blockbusters.

CLEMSON -4.5 bama

This line is about two points too low based on the bama hype machine. Clemson is going to be able to run at will against this young and thin bama front 7. And when Clemson starts running the passing game becomes a lot more fluid. The bama sports a mediocre rushing attack with a streaky passing game. I think bama is the team more likely to turn the ball over because they'll be pressing and if one team was capable of putting up 35 points it's Clemson.

OLE MISS -7.5 memphis

Ole Miss has won this game by 2,3,and 4 points the last three years. And let's face it, Ole Miss has been pretty dreadful those years. Houston Nutt is by no means an offensive savior but he at least brings a mentality. Cordera Eason and Enrique Davis should be able to pound the ball behind a veteran offensive line. Jevan Snead makes a few safe passes and Ole Miss is on their way.

Wisconsin -26.5 akron

I like teams with a good running game to cover big spreads. Because you're not rubbing it in if you call a running play every time. It just means you 2nd string backs and offensive linemen are talented. The 2003 Auburn team was dreadful against quality opponents but also managed to rack up 45,48,45, and 73 against their worst opponents. I see Wisky taking an early lead then continuing to pile it on.

MICHIGAN -3 Utah

I'd say that there is more than a chance that the Utes could win this game. I also think this rebuilding year under Rich Rodriguez is a little overblown. I think it's easier to switch from run heavy to pass oriented than vice versa. Also, Michigan still fields a defense right? So let's say the Wolverines somehow manage to put 17 points on the board. They should win by at least 7. I think the App State loss last year put a stain on Michigan in voters minds. They were undervalued for most of last year after that and I think it's carried over to this year. Michigan at home giving 3 seems like a value pick to me if I've ever seen one.

AUBURN -26 LaMonroe

I think there are two reasons for this line. First, LaMonroe beat bama last year so there seems to be some sentiment they can give Auburn a run. Well, bama was pretty mediocre last year and everyone knows that. But guess what? LaMonroe was just as crappy. They went 6-6 last year and got blown out by the other BCS teams they played. The second reason for this line is the thought from outside observers that a QB controversy is going to affect the team. I don't think it's much of a controversy at this point. It's pretty much the exact same thing as Chris Leak and Tebow but with the races reversed. Chris Todd is your passer and Kodi Burns is your running option. So they will take different drives or field positions. It's not like they have similar skill sets and they are streaky. Also, in a game like this it means both QBs will get quality reps to sort out the situation. I think Auburn puts up an absolute minimum of 38 points. So LaMonroe has to figure out a way to get 2-3 scores. I see them topping out at 14. It may be cutting it close but I'm taking Auburn.